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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-08-20T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14113/-1
CME Note: The CME is associated with a filament eruption occurring around 2018-08-20T18:00Z at N40W05 in SDO 193.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-25T06:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -169
Dst min. time: 2018-08-26T07:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-08-25T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14115/1
Model Inputs:
2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=309.0, HalfAngle=19.0, Time21.5=2018-08-21T18:06Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2018-08-25T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =12.0 (+- 8 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2018-08-26T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180821_180600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 87.90 hour(s)
Difference: 6.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2018-08-21T14:06Z

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